Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 240237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 75.5W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning will likely be required for the island of Jamaica on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica on Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti. Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by late Friday into Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven