Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 250253 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Melissa is still trying to get organized. While the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb, the tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA aircraft shows that the 500-mb center is displaced about 20-25 n mi east-southeast of the surface center. The tilt is also present at the aircraft flight levels, with dropsondes released at the flight-level center missing the surface center and reporting 25-35 kt surface winds. In addition, the aircraft radar data and land-based radar data from Jamaica show that the cyclone has not yet been able to develop a persistent eyewall. Based mainly on the central pressure and satellite intensity estimates the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Although the initial motion is a bit uncertain, Melissa now appears to be moving slowly northwest with the initial motion 325/3 kt. A turn toward the west or west-northwest and a continued slow forward speed are expected in 12-24 h as low- to mid-level ridging builds to the north of the cyclone. This motion should continue through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving into the southeastern United States and the southwestern Atlantic will break the ridge to the north, with Melissa expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward as it recurves into the westerlies. There remains a substantial spread in the guidance with respect to where the center of Melissa may pass in relation to Jamaica, with solutions ranging from the GFS passing near the eastern end of the island to the Canadian passing west of the island. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and shows the center passing over Jamaica just after 72 h. However, any motion north of the current forecast track could bring the center near or over Jamaica at almost any time between 24-72 h. After passing Jamaica, Melissa is likely to move near or over eastern Cuba, but which portion of eastern Cuba may be most affected remains uncertain at this time. While the westerly shear that has been affecting Melissa will not completely stop during the next 2-3 days, it is forecast to decrease to about 10-15 kt in 24 h or less. This should allow rapid development as the storm is located in a moist environment over very warm sea surface temperatures. The one short-term restraining factor is that Melissa's structure is not quite good enough yet to allow rapid intensification (RI), and thus it could be another 6-12 h before RI begins in earnest. The latest round of intensity guidance shows somewhat lower peak intensities than the previous advisory, mainly due to the models moving Melissa near or over Jamaica. However, the current forecast track keeps the center offshore for 72 h or more, and based on this the new intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance with a peak intensity of 135 kt. Despite the weaker guidance, there is still a possibility that Melissa could become a category 5 hurricane during the forecast period. After passing near or over Jamaica, the cyclone is forecast to weaken due to possible interaction with Cuba and increasing southwesterly shear as Melissa encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late Saturday. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions. 4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.5N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.7N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.8N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 16.8N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 16.9N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.4N 77.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.3N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 23.2N 73.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven