Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 240237 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Melissa has gotten a little better organized this evening, with the low-level center re-forming a little to the north close to a burst of deep convection. However, tail Doppler radar data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggests the storm is still not vertically aligned, and the circulation at 700 and 500 mb is still poorly defined. The central pressure remains near 1001 mb, so the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt. However, the aircraft wind data suggest this could be a little generous. The initial motion is now slowly northward, 355/3 kt. Melissa remains trapped in an area of weak steering currents between mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest. During the next couple of days, the ridge to the northwest is forecast to build eastward to the north of Melissa in the wake of a mid-latitude shortwave trough currently moving eastward through the Bahamas. This evolution would cause Melissa to move slowly northward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a westerly turn at a continued slow forward speed. The GFS and the HAFS regional hurricane models show a more initial eastward motion possibly due to center re-formation, and due to this they forecast a track east of Jamaica, followed by an eventual northward motion toward eastern Cuba. The ECMWF, Canadian, UKMET, HFIP Corrected Consensus, and Google DeepMind forecast a more westerly track that passes south of Jamaica, followed by a northward turn near or west of the western end of the island near the end of the forecast period. The HRWF, HMON, and the other consensus models are in between these and forecast the center to cross Jamaica. The new forecast continues to follow the more westerly solution and is little changed from the previous forecast. It should be noted that regardless of the exact track, the center of Melissa is likely to pass dangerously close to Jamaica during the next few days, and it could also come close to the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. Melissa is still feeling the effects of about 15 kt of westerly shear, and between this and the disorganized structure only slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 h. After that time, a combination of more favorable upper-level winds and very warm sea surface temperatures should allow considerable strengthening once the cyclone gets better organized. The intensity guidance remains in good agreement on the possibility of rapid intensification as the center nears Jamaica, and the new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. In addition, the tropical cyclone is expected to grow significantly in size, and it will likely be a large and dangerous hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Saturday. 2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. 3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.2N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 16.4N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.2N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 17.5N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 17.7N 78.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 19.3N 78.5W 125 KT 145 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven