Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 310233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025 Satellite imagery suggests that Melissa is starting the extratropical transition process, with cold air clouds beginning to enter the southwestern side of the circulation and the remaining convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. Reports from the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm included a central pressure near 971 mb and 700-mb flight-level winds of 111 kt well to the southeast of the center. Since there is no convection in this area to mix these winds to the surface, it is difficult to tell just how strong the surface winds may be. However, based on the observed structural decay and the trends in satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 85 kt. Melissa continues to accelerate to the northeast with the initial motion now 040/33 kt. An even faster motion toward the northeast is expected during the next 48 h as the cyclone becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone to the northwest. This track should bring the center to the northwest of Bermuda during the next 6 h or so, and just south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland between 24-36 h. After 48 h, an east-northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected as Melissa becomes part of an elongated area of low pressure over the northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is faster than the previous one, but has little difference in direction of motion from the previous track through 96 h. An eastward adjustment was made at 120 h. Overall, the new forecast track is close to the consensus models in a tightly-packed guidance suite. Melissa is now moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this should aid the ongoing extratropical transition. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical by 24 h, then continue as a gradually weakening extratropical low as it crosses the north Atlantic. The forecast intensities during the extratropical stage are based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight, with tropical storm conditions now occurring on the island. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 32.8N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 37.3N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 49.2N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 52.9N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1200Z 54.6N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z 55.6N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 59.5N 17.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z 62.6N 11.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven