Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 270245 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Melissa remains a very intense hurricane with a well-defined eye surrounded by extremely cold cloud tops, significantly colder than -80 deg C. The cloud pattern is quite symmetrical on satellite imagery with strong upper-level outflow, especially over the northern semicircle. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system this evening and found that the central pressure had fallen to near 933 mb, and peak flight-level winds support an intensity of 125 kt. It should be noted that satellite-based estimates, including subjective Dvorak analyses of T7.0, suggest a higher intensity than found by the aircraft thus far. Although the eye wobbled a bit to the south recently, this is believed to be temporary and a more representative initial motion estimate is about 270/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. The mid-level ridge that had been steering Melissa westward is expected to weaken by tomorrow. This should allow the hurricane to turn to the north and north-northeast during the next day or so. Then, a developing mid-level trough near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to cause Melissa to move northeastward with increasing forward speed. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and Google DeepMind ensemble mean predictions. Since the hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively low vertical wind shear environment during the next day or two, it is expected to strengthen some more until it interacts with the land masses of Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The global models show stronger vertical shear north of Cuba so the system should gradually weaken later in the period. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities are likely. Although winds have temporarily decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches will likely be required early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.3N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 78.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.1N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 23.4N 73.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 30.1N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 38.1N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch