Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 262100 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 After an earlier pause in intensification, this afternoon's Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found Melissa intensifying again. The minimum pressure has fallen 12 mb from this morning NOAA-P3 mission, with the last dropsonde indicating a minimum pressure of 941 mb, and the plane reported a shrinking eyewall down to 6 n mi in diameter. In addition to the low pressure, the satellite presentation of Melissa remains very impressive, with 1-minute visible satellite images from a GOES-19 meso-sector showing a very clear eye with a stadium effect. The eye temperature on water vapor imagery has continued to warm, while the thick ring of eyewall cloud tops remains between -75 to -80 C around the eye. The presentation of Melissa on radar reflectivity from Kingston, Jamaica has also improved, though there still appear to be hints of a moat forming around the inner eyewall, though without an obvious secondary eyewall formation yet. Subjective Dvorak CI-numbers from both SAB and TAFB were T7.0/140 kt, with objective satellite estimates between 132-143 kt. However, Melissa's peak winds from the last couple of recon missions have been lagging the satellite-based estimates. The last fix had peak 700 mb flight level winds of only 129 kt, but a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall also reported a 500 m layer average of 142 kt, with an earlier dropsonde in the NE eyewall with a surface wind gust of 131 kt. This data is enough to raise the maximum sustained winds of 125 kt, and given the satellite presentation, this could be conservative. Melissa continues to move slowly westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. The hurricane has been moving a little faster to the west today, and this motion will likely continue for another 12-18 hours while the narrow mid-level ridge to the north remains in place. Soon, a short-wave trough will be moving into the SE United States, and this feature should create a weakness that Melissa will turn sharply northeast into, as it gradually accelerates. The track guidance has shifted a little westward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast was nudged a little west again, but still shows landfall on Tuesday morning along the south coast of Jamaica. There remain some timing differences thereafter, but a second landfall is anticipated along the southeastern Cuba coast by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. As Melissa then accelerates into the southwestern Atlantic, it will move through the Bahamas and potentially approach Bermuda by the day 4-5 time frame, with a reinforcing trough helping to kick it farther out to sea. The latest NHC track forecast is a little west in the first 24-60 h, but falls back near the previous forecast track thereafter. The track is roughly a blend of the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI). Now that Melissa is intensifying again, it seems more clear that the earlier pause in intensification was a temporary oscillation, and the hurricane now appears poised to intensify more in the short-term. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a little more intensification in 12 h, but continues to show a peak intensity of 140 kt, which is supported by HAFS-B which shows landfall of Melissa as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The Google DeepMind ensemble members also continue to indicate this peak, with now 48/50 members reaching this lofty intensity. However, inner-core processes like ERCs could occur at any time, and the current small eye of Melissa likely suggests an ERC could begin in the next 24 hours or so, though it is very difficult to predict these occurrences with much skill. After landfall in Jamaica, Melissa will likely weaken some due to the interaction with that Island's high terrain, but it is still expected to be a major hurricane when crossing the Cuba coastline on Tuesday night. After emerging into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, increasing vertical wind shear should continue gradual weakening through the end of the forecast, with the possibility that Melissa could start extratropical transition by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the high side of the guidance, but falls closer to the HCCA and IVCN aids towards the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Although winds have temporarily decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches will likely be required early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.4N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA 60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST 72H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin