Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 270243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...MELISSA LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 77.5W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Haiti north of Port-Au-Prince to the border with the Dominican Republic on the north coast. The Hurricane Watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected to begin by late tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the warning area in Haiti. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Haiti on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch