Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 261736 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 76.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 76.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. Over the Turks and Caicos, total rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin