Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
914 WTNT33 KNHC 232050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for the island of Jamaica tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier on Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected. Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by late Friday into Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin